Sunday, March 30, 2008

FRE FREDDIE MAC

Click on the image and it should open up larger on the same screen(right click to open a new tab). Freddie Mac and his family doesn't look good, they haven't for a while. There is a hard line of resistance at 34 and has been a nice short since touching that level. First support looks like 21 and then 16, so there is some juice left. Also, MACD is rolling over and OBV (on balance volume) is heading lower.

The information/material provided on http://www.simekspeculation.blogspot.com is for general informational purposes only. This information is not intended as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security, or fund. You bear responsibility for your own decisions and research, and should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Book Review:Commodity futures and options, Kleinman




Since every other headline today, is about Commodities, I decided to start the Book Review Section of my blog with, Commodity futures and options by George Kleinman. George is a brilliant guy and has a solid approach to the commodities market. I actually contacted George when I graduated school for advice on breaking into the industry, he wrote me back within a few days! The book is a great read and is very useful as a reference. A must read is the story under "Do you have what it takes?" and "The Voice from the Tomb". Kleinman provides insight into the dazzling world of the futures market and starts with a basics. The book finishes with a section named, "Twenty-five trading secrets of the pros", which I found very interesting. This book is for anyone starting out in the industry or someone who wants how the price is set for heating oil or wheat. looking for a better understanding of the wild world of commodities. Kleinman shares his personal experiences which is helpful for those who are not familiar with the markets.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

GS Chart , before March 18th earnings



Again, sorry about the sizing of this chart. Ok Goldman is clearly at the support line of 157 (green line) that is held by the V-bottom put in on August 16, 2007. Friday's close was 156.86, earnings are on Tuesday. The regression channel I drew has a width of 2SD and is pulled from the 247 level. The top of the channel is 182 and the bottom is 141. With earnings on Tuesday look for a big move, the ATM 155 straddle is pricing in a 15 point move either way, that would be 142 on the down side , which is the bottom of the regression channel and 172 on the up side. Diffucult call going into the earnings, but for the market to reward Goldman they are going to have to announce they discovered how to make gold from water or something to that effect. Which will not be easy but, hey it's Goldman, lol.
Notes for Monday opening. JPM bought Bear, the Fed lowered the discount rate again, and futures are in the tank.

The information/material provided on http://www.simekspeculation.blogspot.com is for general informational purposes only. This information is not intended as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security, or fund. You bear responsibility for your own decisions and research, and should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment.

DOW, can we just add an "N"? The DOWN,


Sorry for the sizing of this chart, I will work on this. Ok I'll make this quick, time to sell this market was the double top at the 12,700 area. This was a textbook double top and an easy short down to the 12,246 level. From here the next support areas to look for are the following: 11,990 (which is unlikely to hold) next stop would be 11,572 which is the low made this year, from there is nothing of any real support till a double bottom that was put it between 6/13/2006-07/18/2006. That number is 10,691- oh that one is going to take a good chuck out of the baby boomers 401K. So have fun with the next 1000 points, as I told a good friend of mine (Lou the options trader) early this year, dont forget Bear markets have sharp rallies to the upside and see you at 11K ( now I'm thinking of lowering this eastimate)
The information provided on http://www.simekspeculation.blogspot.com is for general informational purposes only. This information is not intended as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security, or fund. You bear responsibility for your own decisions and research, and should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment.





Saturday, March 15, 2008

Alex Leijonhufvud on "large arithmetical errors"

The following is a small part of a radio interview by Tom Keene (Bloomberg on the Economy )with Alex Leijonhufvud, PhD


“Financial crisis creates a different kind of recession from the one we usually think of. One way of realizing why this is so, is to think of our entire system of money and credit as a form of social accounting. When I buy something, the money I hand over is the evidence that I have contributed to society something of equal value as that of which I now take out of society. So, the economic models on which the case for the free market system is based, more or less assumes that this condition, the equal-in-value exchange holds for everyone, everywhere, all the time. But, in a financial crisis what we discovery is the equal-in-value condition has been violated, on a large scale in a complicated way. So it is as if, in our accounting system we discover large arithmetical errors. And this is now a problem different than an ordinary recession because in an ordinary recession we believe the equal-in-value condition is still holding true. But, for example people are slow to adjust their prices to changing conditions and that is why we have a transitory period of problems. When we have had these violations of the arithmetic of the system, sort of speak, we have a much more difficult problem that takes a lot of time to track down and its one that is made even more difficult in the current market because of the proliferation of new instruments, derivatives and so on.”


I posted this because Leijonhufvud speaks about a very complex issue and puts it in a simple and understandable context. Look for more "errors" in the accounting system to come out (BCS). Also, be very careful here with the Fed bail out and Moral Hazard. The Fed is buying back Mortgage paper?(oh cool, I now live in a socialist country) More on this in a new posting. Alex Leijonhufvud wrote On Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Keynes: A Study in Monetary Theory, in 1968 and is a professor at The University of California, Los Angeles.

Sunday, March 2, 2008